Summary
Well the mud in the models have cleared up and it we have a pretty good idea of what will happen this week into the weekend. First off, the tropospheric polar vortex will be displaced south over Canada, dominating our weather and driving cold air into the US. There are two waves of energy that will approach from the west neither of which will be very energetic. The first one will approach Thursday night into Friday morning while the second wave will approach Saturday into Sunday. Unfortunately for snow lovers, neither storm seems to have much potential.
Thursday Night into Friday (Jan 5-6)
To be honest there isn't really much to this event. Short range models have been suggesting a period of light snow Thursday night. A reasonable expectation would be a coating of snow, with up to an inch possible. Anything above that is unlikely given the lack of upper level support. The strength of this event has some effect on the second one. The stronger wave 1 is, the farther south wave 2 will be.
Saturday into Sunday (Jan 7-8)
I don't really expect much out of this wave. It's too close to the first one in addition to the fact that the PV is shredding it, resulting in a weak storm that is pushed south. Congrats SC and NC while we stay cold and dry.
Conclusion
This seems to be one of the unlucky periods where we have a decent pattern but bad luck with wave timing. Instead of consolidating, the two waves interfere with each other keeping them weak and unable to push against the PV. After this weekend, the pattern will break down, likely putting us into warmth just in time for the inauguration.
