It's been a nice summer

Winter was brutally cold.. or not... not really... I bottomed out at -2 degrees... I'm in zone 7, so minimum lows near 0 are expected on average. In any case, some of the plants I had outside perished while others were set back. Thankfully we had a warm spring, and a decent, but not brutally hot summer. There were times in which it even seemed to be a bit cool. The plants loved this summer. Without further ado, I present the Maryland Tropics, Year 8, Summer 2015.

The  Musa Basjoo  was frozen to the ground despite a protective wrapping of burlap and Christmas lights. The week of 20 degree highs and single digit lows probably did it in. In any case, the plant resprouted in late April and came back with a vengeance. This is all the growth in the past 4 months.

            

Lord Baltimore Hibiscus,Very vigorous grower with hundreds of flowers a year. Seems less prone to dropping buds during dry weather than the others I've grown.

Newly planted Raspberry

Seedling Poncirus trifoliata (Trifoliate Orange)

Variegated ginkgo seedling that I found. I hope it remains stably variegated

Banana Pups

Caynne Pepper Plant

Ginger plant sprouted from a piece from the supermarket

Entrance to the backyard

Seed grown Canna indica with some caladiums

Cannas, Caladiums, and gingers

Mass of Purple Coneflowers and Black Eyed Susans

Dahlia, unknown variety

Tropical Storm Danny

At 11 AM this morning, invest 96L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 4, the 4th storm of the season. Then at 5 PM, the depression was upgraded to Tropical storm Danny. This is the first named storm in over a month, with the previous storm, Tropical Storm Claudette dissipating on July 15th, which is very unusual given that we are entering the heart of the hurricane season. This gap could be because the earlier storms were homegrown systems, originating from old frontal boundaries and other non-tropical features. Normally, during the peak of hurricane season, storms develop more often from African tropical waves moving through the tropical Atlantic, known as the Main development Region (MDR) but due to hostile conditions of high shear,dry air, and low vertical instability over the MDR, these waves failed to develop. These unfavorable conditions are thought to be a product of the strengthening El-Nino as well as a very strong Bermuda High. Danny seems to have happened to find a pocket of low shear and decent moisture to capitalize on.

Danny originated as a tropical wave ( a cluster of thunderstorms) over Africa over a week ago before moving into the Atlantic ocean. From the beginning, the wave defied dry air and many computer model's forecasts that the wave would never develop into anything substantial, steadily organizing its thunderstorm activity. Danny is in an environment that is conducive for strengthening, with high sea surface temperatures around 28 degrees Celsius and low wind shear, although the storm is travel ling just south of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which suppresses thunderstorm activity. Despite Danny's proximity to dry air and Sahara dust, the NHC has given a bullish forecast, bringing the storm up to 100 mph sustained winds (a Category 2) in 5 days as it approaches the Caribbean. This post will be updated as the storm approaches the Caribbean and possibly the US in the next 2 weeks.

Restrengthening Typhoon Soudelor taking aim at Taiwan

After a stint as the worlds strongest tropical cyclone this year so far, Typhoon Soudelor underwent an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC), allowing dry air to become entrained within the system. However, the storm seems to have overcome this problem and is rapidly reorganizing as it heads into warm waters around 30 degrees C and a favorable environment for intensification. It is forecast to chug west north westwards first through the heart of Taiwan, then into China. If it re intensifies, Soudelor could impact Taiwan as a category 4, or worse. Even if it does not, a category 3 strike would be quite damaging. Due to its mountainous terrain, extreme rainfall is common during typhoons as tropical moisture gets wrung out of the atmosphere. Landslides are common and flooding is likely.

Water vapor image of Typhoon Soudelor showing excellent (near perfect) upper level outflow structure.

JTWC Forecast bring the typhoon right through the center of Taiwan

Although the storm is forecast to landfall dead center on Taiwan, Souledor is a large storm that will affect the whole island. That being said, the exposed eastern coast of the island is sparsely populated and the populated centers of Taipei and Kaohsiung are at the northern and southern tips of the island, respectively. Taiwan is commonly affected by typhoons and so its infrastructure has been engineered to withstand the forces of the storm. However, a strong typhoon will still be very damaging.

The typhoon is currently attempting to expel dry air from the core and rebuild its eyewall and begin the restrengthening process as it enters a more favorable environment.

Soudelor had a break in the SE side of the eyewall due to the EWRC and because of dry air. This caused the storm to weaken to a Cat 3 with 115 MPH winds

A couple of hours later, the eyewall has been closed, IR satellite imagery (animation above) shows an increase of convection at this time too, signalling that the storm is strengthening and reorganizing. Notice how outside the eyewall, the convective bands seem to be forming a loop, when this loop closes, the storm may undergo another EWRC, hopefully before landfall.

Landfall on Taiwan is a blessing to China, which is less well prepared since the mountains will disrupt the storms circulation, significantly weakening the storm before it drifts into China. This storm will be closely watched as it approaches land over the next 48 hours-enough time for the storm to change drastically.