Super-Typhoon Vongfong

10/09/2014 Update:
Super-Typhoon Vongfong has weakened, although it is still packing quite a punch, with max sustained winds around 150 mph according to the 18z (2:00 PM EDT) Joint Typhoon Warning center update. Vongfong has begun its turn and is going almost due north, taking aim on Japan and associated islands. Okinawa island, one of the southernmost islands and home to the Kadena Airbase, is forecasted to get a glancing hit as the typhoon passes to its east. Vongfong will weaken as sea surface temperatures drop and shear increases and is expected to complete its transition to an extratropical storm (a low pressure system with fronts [really it's more complicated than that but this definition works well enough]) over northern Japan.

JTWC Forecast Graphic 10/09/2014 Vongfong is expected to landfall in Japan as a hurricane.

Microwave imagery shows that Vongfong has developed concentric eyewalls(rings of strong convection and precipitation) indicating a eyewall replacement cycle(EWRC) is occurring. As the inner eyewall collapses, the typhoon will weaken but may restrengthen if the outer eyewall is sufficiently well organized and contracts to replace the original eyewall.

Super Typhoon Vongfong on October 9th at 1:32PM Eastern Time. Notice the erosion of the northern periphery of the cloud pattern. This may indicate dry air intrusion, disrupting convection.

For those who want the know the background on the name Vongfong, it is a name contributed to the name list of typhoons in the West Pacific basin. Macau (Macao) a semi autonomous region of Southern  China, close to Hong Kong contributed this name. The name means "wasp" , probably in Cantonese, since the two main languages spoken are cantonese and chinese but the chinese word pinyin wasp is huang feng, similar but not the same as Vongfong.

Super Typhoon Vongfong as seen by Astonaut Reid Wiseman from the International Space Station at 7 am EDT October 9, 2014. Image credit: Reid Wiseman; and also: Dr. Jeff Masters;

ORIGINAL TEXT:
After a bout of rapid intensification, Vongfong achieved Super-Typhoon status, being upgraded to having estimated sustained winds of 180 mph and gusts up to 220 mph.

Super Typhoon Vongfong as seen in moonlight at 17:03 UTC (1:03 pm EDT) on October 7, 2014. At the time, Vongfong was a Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA.

Sunrise over Vongfong on October 8th 2014. Note the Stadium effect on the eye, which makes it seem larger than it actually is. Image courtesy of CMISS/University of Wisconsin

This is the strongest tropical cyclone since Super-Typhoon Haiyan late last year, which had estimated sustained winds of up to 195 mph. It struck the Philippines with estimated sustained winds of 190 mph.

Super Typhoon Vongfong

Super Typhoon Haiyan at peak right before landfall

Vongfong is not expected to hit land at full intensity. It is forecase to turn north from its current west heading, strengthening a little to 190 mph before weakening  as it recurves. Likewise to Typhoon Phanfone, earlier this week, Vongfong is forecast to strike Japan while weakening though it may still be a major typhoon when it crosses over some of the outer islands of Japan.

JTWC official warning graphic beginning October 7th

Mango seedlings :D

Mangoes are awesome. But some mangoes are better than others. The most commonly sold mangoes in the US are the red and green Tommy Atkins mangoes. They're not valued for their taste, but for their ability to be stored and shipped for long distances and arriving at the supermarket somewhat mango-like. They're fibrous and often not very sweet. It's like playing the lottery on mangoes some are ok and others are downright atrocious. You can do better than these. go to and tropical country and the first mango you pick up will likely taste better. Another type is the Ataulfo mango, or Champagne mango. It is smaller and less fibrous and reputable sweeter, but once again, cannot compare to mangoes in tropical countries.

Ataulfo on the left and Tommy Atkins on the right

The mango that closes resembles those from tropical countries in terms of flavor and sweetness so far (My tropical fruit experience stems from Taiwan) is the Francique mango from Haiti. We found a few this year at whole foods and decided to try them. Even the lime green ones were sweet. Out of curiosity, I did some research on planting mango seeds. I decided on the method that called for split open the husks and placing the seed into a bag with moist paper towels.

 

Poly embryonic mango seedling

Francique Mango

 Tangle of roots and paper towels that the mangoes called home for a month.

 All the mango seedlings in a group photo after extraction from the paper towel the largest seedling (left photo) would be among the 2 survivors after squirrels decided to eat the rest

                                 

Tornado Watch until 9PM

The SPC has issued a tornado watch until 9PM for the Washington DC metro area and areas to the NW. Currently,  a backdoor cold front ( west progressing cold front) is near the vicinity of Baltimore. To its South and West, southerly flow at the surface has brought warm, moist air up, creating an unstable environment to fuel the storms. Soundings have indicated around 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE and around 30 knots of shear. The CAPE is enough to support severe thunderstorms. Shear may be a little weak but is forecast to strengthen. Shear is strongest near the front. As the storm nears the boundary, the wind shift associated with it creates shear, this promotes turning of the the storm and increases the chances of tornadoes. However, this is delicate balance. As soon as the storm crosses the front, its source of energy is gone and the storm chokes itself to death. Where is the front is is very hard to forecast, hence the short notice. This is also a reason past scenarios have failed to produce tornadoes. Another reason include lack of surface heating and destabilization due to persistent cloud cover. Updates will come as needed and if I can find time (unlikely) away from schoolwork(very likely).

OFFICIAL SPC WATCH AND PROBABILITIES

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
     WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
     SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
     NORTHERN VIRGINIA
     NORTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM
     UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAGERSTOWN
   MARYLAND.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes  Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%)

Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (30%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%)

Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (30%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (70%)