Monday, March 2, 2015

Tuesday Potential for a Rush Hour Mess

10:30 PM 3/2/2015 Update:
The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory. Starts early at 9AM. Not sure why. Overall seems a little out of sync with model guidance but maybe they know something I don't. The rush hour timing certainly won't help with minimizing impact. But the March sun will hopefully keep pavement temps high enough to prevent glaze from forming on the roadways.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS
  AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1
  INCH...ALONG WITH UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW AND ICE COVERED. TRAVELING WILL BE
  DANGEROUS.

Final call (based on what I see): 
Trace sleet/freezing rain.
Changeover to rain around 7PM
Early release possible. The start time of precip is forecasted to be around noon.


Original Text:
Today we'll get some pretty decent ice melt which is a good thing since the load needs to be taken off the tree branches and power lines before the possible next round Tuesday afternoon. High pressure building in today will keep us cool, in the 30s to near 40. We will drop to the low 20s tonight. Tomorrow will dawn cold and cloudy and we will struggle to climb above freezing. Starting mid afternoon, snow and sleet will move in and fall through rush hour before possibly changing to freezing rain if temperatures drop. Temps are expected to rise above freezing overnight.

Since there are significant variations between the models regarding impact, we are waiting for the 12z models to come out before going forth with the final call.

First call: 
Half inch sleet, trace freezing rain.
Temps in the low 30s
Perhaps an early release if the radar lights up earlier than expected, which has been the pattern lately.

1 comment: