First Slight Risk of the year today

As the warm front that brought us about 1.5 inches of rain quickly lifts north, some clearing should occur quickly this morning.  This will allow temps to rise into the upper 70s and maybe lower 80s by mid afternoon if clearing is complete. 

 Storms are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front in the afternoon some storms may be severe and as a result the SPC has issued a slight risk for the Mid Atlantic region. They have hinted that they may upgrade our area later in the day.

...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE FL PENINSULA...  

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEFINITIVE SPATIOTEMPORAL OVERLAP OF DEEP ASCENT WITH STRONG MOISTURE RETURN/BUOYANCY...IN RESPONSE TO /1/ THE GROWING GAP BETWEEN THE NWD-TRACKING OCCLUDED CYCLONE CENTER AND RICHER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE RELEGATED TO THE SERN CONUS...AS WELL AS  /2/ THE PARENT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC PERTURBATION BECOMING CLOSED.

   REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE SERN STATES WILL ENCOURAGE EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML PLUME SAMPLED BY SUNDAY EVENING RAOBS OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...INTO PARTS OF THE SE CONUS/CAROLINAS. RELATED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERLIE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING WITH LITTLE MLCINH ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA. THIS IS WHERE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AMIDST MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED CIRCULATIONS. LONG...STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELL  STRUCTURES INITIALLY...THOUGH AREAS OF LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE LIKELY.

   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR COVERAGE MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGION. THIS COULD WARRANT UPGRADE TO ENHANCED DESIGNATION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...AND A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SVR HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST DEEP ASCENT OVER THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING...CAST TOO MUCH  DOUBT ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SVR POTENTIAL. ALSO...ONE OR TWO SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH A LLJ. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR SFC WINDS TO VEER THUS LIMITING 0-1-KM SRH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RENDERS MARGINAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OUTLOOK. RELATIVELY MORE BACKED SFC WINDS MAY BE FOUND FROM PARTS OF MD/DC INTO CNTRL/ERN PA AT THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR/WARM FRONT...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL GAINS IN BUOYANCY COULD BE STUNTED BY RESIDUAL CLOUDS RELATED TO THE LEAD DISTURBANCE...ONCE AGAIN RENDERING ONLY MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN WEAKENING BY EVENING AS IT NEARS/MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.