Danny dies.. Erika about to form?

This morning, Tropical Depression Danny was downgraded to a remnant low. Wind shear and dry air has taken its toll on the storm. Although it still has convection, Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the low level circulation has dissipated.

BULLETIN REMNANTS OF DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015 ...DANNY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 62.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES   DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that Danny has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Danny were located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The trough is expected to dissipate during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Danny are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic through Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Danny. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch    Ex-Danny should bring some much needed rain to Puerto Rico and the Northern Lesser Antilles, which are in a drought. The dry air and high shear have prevented storm from bringing much needed rain and these islands also receive a substantial amount of their summer precipitation from tropical waves and cyclones. Radar Loop out of Puerto Rico showing the remnants of Danny approaching the island Another tropical wave that moved off of Africa a few days ago, dubbed Invest 98L, has been steadily organizing. Although it has tropical storm force winds, a closed circulation has not been confirmed. The NHC gives it a 90% chance of developing. All it has to do is close off the west side of its circulation to be classified as Tropical Storm Erika and since it is in an area with moderate shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and little dry air and dust, it shouldn't be too hard to do. CMISS Wind Shear analysis of the Tropical Atlantic. Invest 98L is on the lower right near the spiral which depicts an upper level high, which will help ventilate the storm. A recent scatterometer pass caught half of the circulation, which appears to be elongated. It also caught tropical storm force winds.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
about 825 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little
better organized today, although satellite wind data today suggest
that the system has not yet developed a fully closed surface
circulation.  Recent reports from a NOAA buoy indicate that the low
is producing winds to tropical-storm-force, and only a small
increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical
storm as the system moves westward near 20 mph.  Interests in the
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Additional information on this low can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Some models, namely the specialized high resolution hurricane forecast models, GFDL and HWRF strengthen the storm significantly.  Current models bring the storm north of the Caribbean islands by the end of the week. As the storm approaches the US, where it goes will be less certain. The storm could go out to sea or it could be pushed west into the US by the Bermuda High. It is probably a good idea to keep an eye on this storm.

Whole view shot of the Caribbean and western Tropical Atlantic. Ex-Danny is the yellow blob in the middle and Invest 98L (future TS Erika) is the red and yellow blob on the right.