First Week of Feburary and a little bit more

Well... It's February. Time for another pattern shift. Actually that happened at the end of the last snowstorm. That's when the blocking that set up our snowstorm broke down and ushered in a new pattern of warmth. It took a week and a half for 2 upwards of 3 feet of snow to be reduced to just mere inches. The next few days will remove what is left of the snowpack. By the end of the week, dirty snowpiles will be all that's left of Blizzard of 2016. It's sort of interesting to note that apart from the mountains out west, the upper Midwest and Northern New England (at Canada's latitude), we are the only place with decent snowcover. That's going to change soon.

A storm currently dropping snow in the Desert Southwest well strengthen and track NE through the great plains, dropping a wide swath of snow over the next few days. We remain cool-ish , in the upper 40s and low 50s tomorrow but SW flow ahead of the storm will bring temperatures into the 60s on Wednesday. Say goodbye to the snowpack if you haven't already. It will be missed dearly but it will live on in the history books. By Thursday,  the cold front should be clearing the area. Temperatures will drop to seasonable levels, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.


I bet many of you don;t really care about the warm rainer, only about whether it's going to snow. Well, we are entering the prime period for snow. However, the overall pattern is not perfect. Unlike 2 weeks ago, when the pattern was very predictable (thanks to Atlantic blocking) the upcoming weeks will be very chaotic. A smattering of southern and northern stream disturbances will make its way over the Continental US towards us. The timing and how these disturbances interact will dictate whether it snows or not, or whether we even get a storm in the first place.

The upcoming pattern is reminiscent of Feb 2015, and to some extent, 2014. The Tropospheric polar vortex will split, with lobes of energy dropping out of Canada. There are indications that the Stratospheric PV will weaken and even split- something that is much rarer. The Pacific looks to be cooperative to some extent with a +PNA and a -EPO. However, the -NAO -associated blocking in the Atlantic that we so highly covet does not seem to be materializing. Since everything is a moving target, models will have a hard time figuring out how disturbances interact. During this period, there will be multiple chances for moderate precipitation events. Lead times will be short and confidence will be lower than usual. A repeat of the blizzard is unlikely unless blocking can develop, which has been indicated in the longer range (mid month) by some models.

The next time period to watch is February 8-10. A longwave trough will set up over the Eastern US and multiple shortwaves (like 3 or 4 of them) will ride up along this trough and we will be caught up in the middle of it. That's all I can say with confidence Oh, and that they will interact in some way. The bottom line is that there will be cold air, and there will be disturbances. We will need to thread the needle to get a snowstorm.  A mixed event is more likely and rain even more so. After all, we are classified as a humid subtropical climate. Analysis of the Feb 8-10 timeperiod will likely follow in the next few days.