Irmagerd, don't panic yet

While Harvey was wreaking havoc on Texas, a tropical wave just off the coast of Africa quietly spun into a tropical storm named Irma. The next day, it became a hurricane, and by the end of that day, a major hurricane, the easternmost Major Hurricane to form in August and the 4th easternmost anytime of the year.

Hurricane Irma satellite imagery http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Computer models have been hinting that Irma could affect the US since Irma's birth. Although climatologically, such a strong storm so far out is favored to go harmlessly out to sea, Irma's track is unusual, forced west by strong high pressure. It's also the infamous "I" storm, which have been quite damaging in recent years. Of the 16 "I" storms since 2001, 8 of them have been retired. Interestingly, Irma was selected to replace Irene, which impacted the East Coast in 2011. Storms are retired when the reuse of the name would cause confusion or panic, generally since they have cause major damage.

Retired hurricanes with names staring with "I" since 2001 (Credit: weather.com)

What we know:
Irma is expected to move WSW over the next 3 days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles (beginning of the Caribbean) before beginning a turn to the WNW. All models have the turn happening early enough that Irma will scrape across the northern islands without entering the Caribbean Sea. However, since the sea temps are warmer there, the storm will also get stronger. Right now the National Hurricane Center predicts a Category 4, but a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question and has been forecasted by nearly every model (including the GFS and ECMWF). As Irma heads west, its direction should turn more northerly, potentially affecting the Bahamas and other landmasses.

Official NHC Forecast issued 11PM EDT, September 2 2017

What is to be seen:
We have little idea about which piece(s) of land will be affected in the longer term. Any potential US landfall is more than a week away, somewhere around September 10th or 11th. Computer models are pretty accurate within 5 days so nailing something 9-10 days away would be an absolute miracle so I'm just going to leave them out for now.  Currently, it seems that the East Coast of the US is going to feel some effect from Irma. Whether it's just a scrape or a full blown landfall is another story.

Either way, it may be wise to review disaster plans and stock up on some essentials such as water and non-perishable foods. Just in case. I will keep you posted.