First up is a new experimental forecast with near 100% accuracy
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| Disclaimer: This is intended as satire and should not be taken seriously. |
Second, the February 12-13 Storm was rated a 3, a major storm, on the The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). Do you remember this storm? Yes, it was only 2 weeks ago. all that's left of it are a few dirty snow piles and fun memories. High instability over the region allowed heavy snow to develop. The "Deathband" that set up over the DC area on the night of Feb 12, giving us more than a foot of snow, far exceeding forecasts. A radar loop of that band can be found here. Dulles got 13.3 inches, BWI got 11.5, and Reagan National got a grand total of 7.0 inches of snow. Snow totals can be found here.
From the NOAA site: "NESIS scores are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers."
For more information about the NESIS scale and how past storms have scored on this scale, visit the NOAA page.
Third, is an analysis of the possible snow in the next week or so. It is almost March, meteorological spring. Before March, we don't seem to have much of a change of getting anything more than an inch or two of snow.
The first threat will be on Tuesday night through Wednesday. some models also indicate the possibility of snow showers during Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Up to an inch is expected though the NWS is even less enthusiastic than that, forecasting less than an inch across the area. If the storm does over perform, it will be to the north and east as the coastal low gets it's act together more quickly than expected.
The polar energy is too far displaced north to interact with the surface low to the south and create a storm.
More likely than not, this storm will fail to give us anything more than an inch. The rest of the week will be sunny, with highs in the low to mid 30s, unseasonably cold for this time of the year when highs average highs are approaching 50.
The second threat is on Friday night. this has the potential for a bit more, maybe 1-2 inches, only because it is farther out and there is less certainty. It certainly could also go out to sea without as much as a flurry. The storm is not likely to trend higher in snow totals. What seems like a bleak outlook is not so bleak. We are not missing storms because it is too warm, after all, we are approaching spring, but because there are too many disturbances and storms are getting pushed out too fast befor they have the opportunity to intensify. This reasons to believe that the last one of the pattern will have to most potential, with nothing to keep it moving along. This is the March 3-4 storm. The models agree to a storm around then, but do not agree with the track of precip type. But with a strong high to the north, we could squeeze a few inches out before, a changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Of course, this storm is 8 days out and we have seen many storms that have looked like blockbusters in this timeframe turn out to be duds. Case in point, the Friday non-event, which was modeled a week ago tby the Euro to be another major snowstorm.
If conditions warrant, I will come out with more snow forecasts, but as of now, it seems as though this may be the last Snow analysis post of the season. Maybe we can do a sever weather analysis, but that seems less exciting in my opinion. Maybe a cherry blossom and banana blossom watch... Anyways... As always...
Thanks for reading!
-Alex
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