WPC Analysis for next week's possible storm

We are doing the usual 4 days out no storm but trending towards storm scenario again. This storm has the potential to be major, if not historic. It is likely to bomb off the coast, but where is the question. The WPC analysis indicates that they think the major snowstorm is still an option, but so is the out to sea scenario.

THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY REACHED INTO NORTH
AMERICA SINCE JANUARY SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS STILL LOW ACROSS THE EAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD BLAST DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SHORT
RANGE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND ICE
WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HERALDING TUESDAY'S OUTBREAK. IT SEEMS
THAT THE CLIPPER WILL GAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO SIPHON SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SET UP
A DUMBBELLING WITH THE GULF ENERGY TOWARD EVENING TUESDAY
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE ATLANTIC
"BENCHMARK" OF 40N/70W. THIS BINARY INTERACTION--OR FUJIWHARA
EFFECT--IS A PARTICULARLY ENERGIZING PHENOMENON. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THE
BENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBING
OCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE....

The trend lately has been to bring the storm farther west in response to a stronger ridge west, which is bringing the eastern trough farther south and making it more amplified. The jet stream has two main "shapes", progressive and amplified. An amplified jet stream has a more north south component to the winds, bringing storms farther north. Progressive flow is more west east. The general rule is if the jet stream is pushed north one place, it has to drop south at another, and since storms generally travel on the jet stream, this will affect storm track.

Mount Holly New Jersey WFO:

THE MODELS DID NOT BACK OFF, IN FACT BECAME MORE BULLISH, WITH
THE OFFSHORE LOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANYONE WHO HAS
PLANS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY ADVERSE WEATHER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ARE
ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THIS
COULD VERY WELL BRING MULTI FACETED CONCERNS FROM HEAVY SNOW TO
WINDS AND TIDAL FLOODING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZATION DIDNT IMPRESS AND WHILE THE ERRORS
WERE NOT BLATANT, THERE WERE MULTIPLE 10-20M ONES IN CANADA AND
ALASKA CENTERED ON THE REX RIDGE BEING STRONGER AND RIDGING ENTERING
BC. THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE ENTERING THE DENSER RAOB
NETWORKS AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO SOUNDING
RUNS TO SEE IF THE 00Z TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES.
THERMALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME A WRF-NMMB AND GFS BLEND SEEMED TO
INITIALIZE THE BEST.