Sneaky Thursday

10:00PM 2/25/2015 Update:
Final call: Around 1 inch of snow (If you want a range: 1-3 inches)
Snow will begin around 6 and end around 10
Delay likely, but expect to go to school.

7:00AM 2/25/2015 Update:
There is still a lot of uncertainty with what will happen tonight into Thursday. The 0z Model suite came in drier, with less than an inch of snow for us. However, the 6z runs came in a lot wetter, suggesting 1-3 inches is possible.

Here is a pretty map:

This is the QPF (Liquid) forecast by the NAM. It is probably on the wet side but it's pretty. Multiply by the snow ratio (Average 10:!) to get snowfall.

 

Original Text:
Wednesday night into Thursday morning is out next chance at seeing snow. A storm system will track ENE into the Atlantic just south of the Outer Banks, North Carolina. Most models have come to the consensus that this will be a major snowstorm for SE VA and Central NC. Being on the northern edge of the precip field, our forecast is dryer, but there is enough uncertainty that a couple of inches is not out of the question.

Current Situation:
The second, northern stream energy (The Kicker) comes in too quickly and doesn't dig far enough south. As a result, the storm scoots ENE out to sea (OTS). We get very light precip while NC and VA get hammered. Models show that we get an inch of snow at best. The storm is moving too fast to phase with the northern stream energy and has a very compact precip field. However, the upper level vorticity would support a farther north track and models tend to underdo the northern expanse of the precip field.

Better Situations (Most likely to least likely):
The storm itself is stronger as the upper level energy currently in the SW ejects completely instead of leaving some energy behind. Snow range: 1-2 inches

The kicker slows down/digs farther south, allowing the storm to stay farther west and come farther north. Snow range: 1-3 inches

The storm slows down quite a bit allowing partial phasing with the kicker. Storm is stronger so it travels farther north/west. Snow range: 2-4 inches

Ideal Situation:
The storm slows way down and phases with the kicker. Not going to happen.

Bottom Line:
Light snow is possible Thursday morning. Expect nothing more than a few flakes. Significant changes are not expected at the moment tho small changes may get us close to an inch and larger changes, although rare, are not unheard of.