Tuesday... We're looking at that

2:31PM 2/16/2015 UPDATE 
 Nothing much has changed since last night. 6-8 inches is the final call. Snow onset is expected within the next 1-2 hours from south to north. At first the snowflakes will be very fine and have needle and plate structures due to the dry air. Reports have shown that the snow changes over to dendrites (the traditional snowflake structure) about 30 minutes after onset. The snow will stick immediately due to cold temperatures.

Snow Incoming

ORIGINAL TEXT:
Well we're within the time period in which the models have stopped jumping 50 miles a run, alternating between snow and no snow. All major models have settled for snow but still have some differences to resolve. Despite this, the NWS has gone ahead and upgraded the winter storm watch to a warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
  MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL...5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
  MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
  MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING
  SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
  WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THAT CAN QUICKLY
  CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
  BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND
  SLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR
  LESS AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW
  VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELLING DANGEROUS.

Some points about the snow:

This map is a modified version of the NWS official forecast.

The storm is set to travel south of us, keeping us firmly in the cold sector. For once we get cold snow. No worries about mixing or melting. Temperatures will be in the mid teens while it snows. It'll be pretty fluffy powder. However, some models have been depicting a rather sharp cutoff in precipitation amounts to the north due to the extremely cold and dry air around. This may be a concern if the storm tracks any more south. We are still set for decent snow right now. Not perfect, but no one can complain about a warning criteria event.

Snowfall ratios are expected to be above the 10:1 average. Ratios will probably be more around 14:1 and may approach 20:1 at times. This will help to boost snow accumulations. Currently we're looking at 4-8 inches-more to the south and less to the north due to the cutoff.

School will probably be cancelled Tuesday. There is an outside chance at delay or cancellation Wednesday.

The next chance at snow will be Wednesday. A quick snow squall possible. Probably won't be as bad as the last one we had.

I'll keep this post updated as the storm progresses.

Thanks for reading

-Alex