Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Bit of wet snow tomorrow?

We are entering a pattern dominated by the polar jet stream (northern stream). Every 2-3 days we will have a chance at a low pressure passage. Not every one of these will result in snow but we certainly have many chances for at least the next 2 weeks. The first chance is tomorrow. A clipper is forecast to travel overhead and begin to redevelop off the coast. Temepratures will be marginal for a coating of snow. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY
  MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

This is not like last time's clipper (our snowday) temperatures will not be in the 20s but instead in the low 30s. Liquid to snow ratios won;t be so good, and with only .1-.2 inches of liquid forecast, 1 inch of snow may be hard to come by. Might just end up being wet rain.

Timing of the precipitation is also an issue. The models have been slowing down the arrival of the precip, not beginning it until mid morning, basically negating the benefits of a delay. A school day off would be possible, but so would an early release since the worst part is expected to be when schools usually let out. That being said, the southern part of the county should have a hard time getting snow to accumulate on the roads due to high temperatures possible mixing with rain or sleet. Our school situation all depends on how much the northern half of the county gets.

Accumulation: slush -1 inch

Prediction: School as usual tomorrow (50%)
Chances of:
  • Delay only-10%
  • Early Release-20%
  • Delay and closing/Closing only-20%

As I said, 2-3 days until the next storm. We're looking at Friday. Could be real fun or a super-soaker rainstorm. Time will tell.

 
 

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