January 25-27 Possible Storm

I have been hearing many people talking about a snowstorm on Monday but not a mention of Friday's storm. Apparently people don't care about weekend snow. Anyways, here's what I think of the Monday time frame- too far out to tell for sure, but not looking so hot at the moment.

The best case scenario is a Miller B system, where a parent low weakens and redevelops a secondary low off the coast. The secondary low rapidly strengthens, bringing precip to the region. Typically, the reformation takes place too late because the parent low approaches too far to the north. In order for us to cash in on a Miller B, the parent low needs to be quite strong in order to "dig" far enough south for the storm to reorganize before it gets to us.

Models have been trending away from a snowy scenario towards a weaker, more northerly low.

4 successive GFS runs showing the storm at the same time period (7AM Monday). 00Z is the oldest and therefore the farthest south. 18Z is the most recent and the farthest north, illustrating the northward trend.

That being said, many things can change. After all, we are still very far away from the actual event. It took 6 runs to get from a storm that was so far south that it gave us nothing to a storm that is too far north. It can easy swing back. Fluctuations will probably diminish after the Friday-Saturday storm so we will wait until then to see. Don't let your hopes run too wild.

Thanks for reading, Alex