So... the new year is here... Has mother nature made any new years resolutions? Maybe adding some real snow to this drab winter? No... The first opportunity of snow for 2014 is not looking so promising for the DC Metro area. 1-3 inches is a possibility. 3-6 is also, albeit less likely. Don't even hope for anything higher. A bust is definitely possible though. Model watching won't help either. The models don't know what they are doing since cyclogenesis is very complex. So the situation...
There are 2 pieces of energy needed to make this storm happen, 1 from the north and 1 from the south. The north piece, riding the polar jet stream will weaken and transfer its energy to the southern low when it makes its way up the eastern seaboard via the subtropical jet. Where these 2 pieces of energy meet is where phasing and snowstorm formation occurs.
When the northern low weakens, there is a lull between then and when the coastal low really gets cranking. Being stuck in between these 2 systems is the worst place if you are a snow lover. In addition, if the storm phases too late, as the models show, we get almost nothing. It if phases earlier, we may get a decent moderate snow. It is likely that phasing will occur earlier than the models show. Models keep flip flopping around so I won't show them. Following this storm will be a short period of cold with lows in the single digits and teens. This will be followed by another storm which , as with this storm, the models have no grasp on whatsoever what they are going to do. After that, possible record cold...
Sometimes, I think this is how DC is in relation to everyone else...
View Larger Map
 |
| CMC model for this storm... See? The DC snow hole is true... Watching the snow evaporate crossing the mountains only to reappear at the coast is agonizing :P |
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
-Alex
