Monday, January 5, 2015

Yayyyy Snow

7:40AM 1/6/2015 Update:

Four Corners

Click photo to see live webcam


7:30AM 1/6/2015 Update:
 Snow has overspread the area. MCPS is on a 2 hr delay. Yay. Now here's the kicker: we are going to get more than 2 inches of snow. The NSW raised the forecast to 2-4 inches of snow. Since temperatures are so low, the roads are still snow covered. That includes the beltway. Whee... This should've been a day off.

7:00PM 1/5/2015 Update: Graphics added below
Original Text:
A clipper currently in the Midwest is poised to give us a quick shot of 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow morning. It will be a cold, wintery day tomorrow, first of many this week.

That patch of green over the center of the US is our clipper

Temperatures will be well below freezing, in the 20s. So we have the cold, but not the moisture. Liquid equivalent amounts for this event are expected to be around 0.1 inch. Liquid to snow ratios will be between 12 and 15 inches of snow per inch of liquid.

A winter weather advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 1 INCH. UP TO 2 INCHES UNDER HEAVIEST
  BANDS.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE
  MORNING TRAFFIC RUSH...HEAVIEST SNOW 6 AM TO 11 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

Their snow map:
  
 
For those wondering about the possible delays, the impact of this storm is expected to be minor-moderate. Points are deducted for the relatively meager amount of snowfall and the ample lead time, school parking lots and major roadways have been pretreated (some of the roads are already white). However, points are given since the heaviest snow is expected during the morning rush hour.
The HRRR's depiction of the clipper

In terms of school delays, the onset of the precipitation is expected to be around 5-6AM. A delay would sound nice. But that would be make us go to school in moderate snow instead of the elementary schoolers. A delay may allow the road conditions to get bad as people get out for the morning rush. That being said, shutting down school for 1-2 in of snow is sorta overkill. I'd go ahead and say that there is a 50/50 chance for a delay since either way we get to go to school in the snow. 30% chance at a cancellation since we haven't used any snow days yet.