Tropical Storm Fred, the 6th named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season was named this morning right after it splashed down into the Atlantic off the coast of Guinea. Fred has continued to rapidly organize as it moves to the NW at 16 miles per hour with max sustained winds of 60MPH. It is expected to impact the Cape Verdes islands as a hurricane in a few hours (morning for them) before being turned west by strengthening high pressure. At 5:00 PM Eastern Time (8:30 PM, August 31st in the Cape Verdes) the storm was 115 miles away from the islands. The Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Cape Verdes. If Fred strengthens into a hurricane as forecasted, it will be the first time that a hurricane has impacted the islands in modern recorded history. In addition to high winds, flooding and mudslides associated with the torrential rain brought by the storm will also be dangerous.
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Fred has a estimated 24-36 hour window in which to strengthen. The NHC brings the storm up to 80 MPH after 24 hours after which, cool water, dry air, and increasing wind shear will begin to erode the system. Computer models currently forecast the weakening of the storm in the open Atlantic, its remnants being hooked to the northeast by a low pressure trough. The storm may never impact the US.
Random tidbits:
- TS Fred is only the fourth recorded tropical cyclone to form east of 19W in the Atlantic.
- The NHC forecast map (shown above) does not have the capability to display hurricane warnings for the Cape Verdes
- The Cape Verdes islands is officially called the Republic of Cabo Verde, which is derived from their Portuguese name.
Fortunately, the more densely populated islands will be on the southern (weaker) side of the storm and this will be a minimal hurricane and it is not forecasted to affected any additional land. That being said, the islands have virtual no experience with tropical cyclones of this caliber and hopefully, no tragedies result from the passage of Fred. We shall see.
I'm going to leave you with an image of three category 4 hurricanes, one in the E. Pacific and two in the Central Pacific and Hawaii sweating it out in between (not expected to be majorly impacted).
