An adventure through the snowstorm

Oh how I love snow. There's just nothing better than wandering through feet of snow as dendrites the size of half dollars pour out of the sky. Well that didn't quite happen but it came close. Anyways it's kind of hard to play in the snow if you can't walk and you can't see. I learned that in the 2010 snowstorms back in DC.

After classes were cancelled (of course after all my classes had let out already), I went sledding with friends and romping through the forest. From the hills beyond North Campus, I watched Cornell disappear into a shroud of snow.

Cornell's campus is somewhere back there I swear

At one point, night fell and since Wednesday had not been cancelled yet, went back to do work. Later that night, I got bored of work and decided to go for a walk in the blustery winter wonderland. Needless to say, trudging through 2-3ft snowdrifts was not easy. And to think that 2 weeks ago it had been pushing 70. Some of the early spring ephemerals had come out, especially in warmer microclimates around buildings. These were now buried under a protecting layer of snow. It's actually better than an exposed freeze. I've had plants freeze down to the snowline instead of the ground because snow is so insulating. That's why igloos work. Snow is great

You don't say...

Wind is the sculptor of snow. It brings the snow to life, swirling and drifting to form exquisite shapes. This is, however, not without the help of objects around it. Trees seem to sink into the ground and ripples flow across the paths.

Maybe it would be easier to just sled...

The solid barriers of buildings often create turbulence of on the lee side, scouring and depositing snow, creating unique twisted snowdrifts. This is why permeable windbreaks like trees work far better than walls. They slow the wind instead of deflect it. The drifts below were particularly eye-catching because they were. backlit by lights on the stairs between Roberts and Kennedy Hall.

Just above the stairs, the wind tunnel created by the buildings stripped all the snow away. Likewise, in exposed areas, the powdery was often stripped down to a couple of inches by the winds, even to bare ground at times. Cornell also kept the roads surprisingly open, probably with a ton of salt, which is an ecological issue in of itself. If only they could keep the sidewalks open too.

Central Campus at 1:30AM

The real reason I cam out was because I had spotted a lake effect band forming over Cayuga Lake and it meant business when it finally arrived. It was also almost 2:00AM and there were still people sledding down Libe slope, seemingly into a cloud of snowflakes. I presume this is why travel bans are a thing. It was really hard to see anything and it was cold so I went back...

Where's West?

Morrill Hall

In terms of snowfall, the blowing and drifting in addition to the localized nature of the snow bands made it hard to determine the snowfall amounts. An NWS employee measured 17.4" 1 mile NE of Ithaca, which would place it near Cornell's campus. Downtown Ithaca reported 14.7". Both reports were as the storm was winding down, but not yet completely over. Binghamton reported 31" of snow, breaking their all time storm total from the blizzard of 1993.First verified Winter Storm Warning since 2015. Let's see how the snowmelt goes in the March sun. With the big storms, warmups tend to come quickly after the storm. Overall, it was a pretty exciting storm. A big one for upstate NY definitely. But frankly, I do not expect that anything will beat the back to back blizzards in DC anytime soon in terms of raw power. I'd bet that those would also shut Cornell down for a week too.

March Monster

Look at the size of this beast of a storm. Its moisture feed stretches well into the Gulf of Mexico while it snows in upstate NY. This shows how weather connects the world's ecosystems. Water transpired by Caribbean plants are transported into the NE US to build snowpack, replenish rivers and aquifers, sustaining plant and animal communities up there too. And every once in a while, it gives Cornellians a day off.

Stating the obvious: Dont travel in a snowstorm

From the Binghamton NWS: "The CIPS analog system produces the Valentines day 2007 storm as the number one analog, and the 1993 superstorm as number 2. Both of these storms produced widespread 1 to 2 foot accumulations across our area with localized areas of 30+ inches."

Guess what... Cornell closed for both storms... Ithaca got 30" (all time record) in 1993 and 18" in 2007...

However, this time the warnings only suggest 10-18" inches of snow but the upside is much higher, in excess of 2 feet. Also the timing of the storm is bad, beginning early in the morning and going throughout the day. People might come to school but then may not be able to get back. I feel like this is a nightmare in the making. Of course the lower amounts could verify. We shall see....

Gametime for DC: March 13-14 Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain/Rain Currfest

Finally have time to sit down and write. Well we finally clawed our way to a winter storm-in March no less. With only a few hours before the start of precipitation, details are still being worked out. The overall synoptics are clear. Low pressure currently over the Midwest will transfer energy into a developing coastal low off the SE coast. This consolidating low will then run up the East Coast, bringing widespread heavy precipitation. This in conjunction with abnormally cold air will result in frozen precipitation for many.

Current storm positions and radar

First stop for the storm is DC.

Precipitation will overspread the region somewhere between 8PM and 10PM tonight. It may begin as light rain but will turn to snow as steadier precipitation develops. In the early morning hours, as the storm cranks up and approaches, the immediate DC metro area should mix with sleet. this will likely coincide with the heaviest precipitation. Freezing rain is not far off to the SE, although temperatures will probably be too marginal for much ice accumulation. This is where details matter. The timing of the changeover and duration will vary model to model and depends on small track shifts. This will all be nowcasting. In any case, precip will change back to snow as the storm pulls away in the morning and snow may into the afternoon hours, depending on if the storm throws back any precip. That's something that is often not well modeled and often overestimated. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s.

Frozen precip accumulations will vary wildly through MoCo. Areas that don's switch over to sleet may end up with around a foot of snow. Areas that do switch over closer to the city will have much less. However, a couple inches of sleet would still be a traffic disaster so unless the storm just rains, no school Tuesday. Going to go with 3-8 inches of snow before the changeover (more north less south) and then 0-2 inches of sleet (less north more south), before 2-4 more inches of snow after, yielding snow totals of 5-12 inches across the county. A bit more than 1" liquid equivalent.

After this storm, temperatures are expected to stay well below average for at least the rest of the week with some outside chances of snow later too.

The PSU (Cherry Pie) March 13-15 possible snowstorm

Winter storm watch has been issued for DC metro. 5+ inches of wet snow expected.We will get a storm. The thing is we're walking a tightrope in regards to precip and temperatures. Too far west of a storm and we mix. Too far east or if the low pressure centers fails to consolidate fast enough, precip totals could be lower. There are still plenty of details to hash out.

In case you're wondering where the bar stands for snow:
Exceptional: Top March DC snow event (12.0" to tie 1891)

Excellent: Top 5 March snow event (9.8"+)
Good: Top 10 March snow event (7.5"+)

Also we're at like 2" for the entire season.... Won't take much to double that.

If the NWS issues warnings later, then expect Tuesday off. Maybe a early release on Monday too. We'll see.

Timing:
 Rain/snow in the late Monday afternoon into early evening changing over to snow. Temps in the low 40s, upper 30s. Heaviest snow late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Temps in the low 30s to upper 20s.  There is some potential for mixing with sleet and rain depending on the exact low track. Light snow diminishes during the day with some steadier snow possible Tuesday night as the upper level low passes

Snowfall:
There is a decent consensus among global models for at least 1" of liquid equivalent precip. If all snow, @10:1 ratios, that would give us 10". Since it's March and March is warm, the snow will likely be wet and pasty, great for snowmen, but also low ratio and naso great for the trees. If heavy wet snow does materialize, power outages could be an issue (look at Jan 26, 2011). As usual with the elevation/temperature gradient of Montgomery County, snow amounts will be significantly higher in the upper part of the county than the lower part, as much as 6" different (rather arbitrary but you get the point).

Another thing is the instensity of the precip. As the storm bombs off the coast, we get slammed by a slug of tropical moisture. Much of our snow falls overnight, in the way early morning hours. This is the highest confidence part of the storm. As much as 10" could fall then, and then as the storm winds up and pulls away, moisture throw along the backside could bring some more snow. This part is less certain because there will be two initial lows, one well NW and one a coastal. Depending on how long it takes for the coastal to absorb the NW low, the NW low could disrupt the circulation of the coastal and therefore prematurely end the snow.