Week of 11/16/2014 Forecast: Cool then Frigid

Winter's has arrived. No doubt about it. Although our normal highs are still around 60. We may not even pass thirty degrees as a high on Tuesday. It's cold.

Summary:
Rainy and cool Monday with highs around 50,  then clearing out Monday night as an arctic cold front drops through with lows dropping to the upper 20s. Tuesday will be sunny but with moderate westerly winds as highs struggle to reach freezing. Lows in the low 20s to upper teens on Tuesday night. Wednesday-Saturday: Sunny and clouds, chilly, moderating to the 40s by the end of the week, lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Details:

Significant days: Monday and Tuesday
 A cold raw rain is expected tonight as a strung out area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. This low will "cut" to the west of us, bringing warm southerly winds. Tomorrow will also be rainy but it will be quite mild compared to the day after with peaking near 50 by early afternoon prior to the frontal passage. Rain amounts between 1-1.5 inches is expected. Temperatures will begin to drop after 1 PM as cold air advects in. Winds will increase to around 15 mph overnight as the temperature drops to the upper 20s Monday night. 

Winds will increase to 20mph on Tuesday, gusting to around 30. It will be a sunny, but blustery and cold day. We have a chance of breaking the daily minimum high temperature record for all 3 airports (BWI, DCS, and IAD) on Tuesday as highs struggle to pass freezing. Areas in the northern part of the county likely will not pass 30 degrees. Temperatures at night will plummet to the low twenties in the urban heat island and the teens in the outer suburbs, also threatening to set record lows. Tuesday will be the coldest day since late March of 2014.

Temperature overview for the next 3 days according to the 21 ensembles of the SREF model. Black line is the mean. The more closely clustered the lines are, the higher the confidence in the forecast.

The rest of the week will be quiet. On Wednesday, will once again be sunny and cold, with highs in the low to mid thirties. Winds will die down as the low pressure pulls away. after that, the temperature will moderate in response to retreating high pressure. Despite this, they will stay well below normal. with highs approaching the mid 40s by Thursday,  with a slight cool down after that.

Any Snow?
For those who do not want to have hope and have it crushed: No.

For those who will hang on to hope till the storm has passed (like me): Maybe...
Snow outlook will come out tomorrow if  time warrants.

Thanks for reading~

-Alex