As the warm front that brought us about 1.5 inches of rain quickly lifts north, some clearing should occur quickly this morning. This will allow temps to rise into the upper 70s and maybe lower 80s by mid afternoon if clearing is complete.
Storms are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front in the afternoon some storms may be severe and as a result the SPC has issued a slight risk for the Mid Atlantic region. They have hinted that they may upgrade our area later in the day.
...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE FL PENINSULA...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEFINITIVE SPATIOTEMPORAL OVERLAP OF DEEP ASCENT WITH STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN/BUOYANCY...IN RESPONSE TO /1/ THE GROWING GAP BETWEEN THE
NWD-TRACKING OCCLUDED CYCLONE CENTER AND RICHER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE RELEGATED
TO THE SERN CONUS...AS WELL AS /2/ THE
PARENT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC PERTURBATION BECOMING CLOSED.
REGARDLESS...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE SERN STATES WILL
ENCOURAGE EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML PLUME SAMPLED BY SUNDAY EVENING RAOBS OVER
THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...INTO PARTS OF THE SE CONUS/CAROLINAS. RELATED STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERLIE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING
WITH LITTLE MLCINH ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA. THIS IS WHERE A DIURNAL
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AMIDST MODEST FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED CIRCULATIONS. LONG...STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS
MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES INITIALLY...THOUGH AREAS OF LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH INTO SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE LIKELY.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND
SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR COVERAGE MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGION. THIS COULD WARRANT
UPGRADE TO ENHANCED DESIGNATION IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...AND A FEW ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SVR HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL
MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST DEEP ASCENT OVER THE
WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING...CAST TOO MUCH
DOUBT ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED AND/OR SIGNIFICANT
SVR POTENTIAL. ALSO...ONE OR TWO SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH A LLJ.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR SFC WINDS TO VEER THUS LIMITING 0-1-KM SRH
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RENDERS MARGINAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OUTLOOK.
RELATIVELY MORE BACKED SFC WINDS MAY BE FOUND FROM PARTS OF MD/DC INTO
CNTRL/ERN PA AT THE NRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR/WARM FRONT...WHERE SOMEWHAT
GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...DIURNAL GAINS IN BUOYANCY COULD
BE STUNTED BY RESIDUAL CLOUDS RELATED TO THE LEAD DISTURBANCE...ONCE AGAIN
RENDERING ONLY MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING BY EVENING AS IT NEARS/MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
