Thursday, December 12, 2013

More winter slop

High pressure dominates the region, beginning clear and cold days. Temps tonight will be in the low 20s and highs in the 30s tomorrow. As the work week draws to a close, this high will begin to lift out, being replaced a low pressure system forming to the west. This system will be a complex one, with many low centers and phasing events. This system may start off as some snow and sleet on Saturday before quickly transitioning to  into Sunday night . The storm is forecast to bomb out off of the coast of New England, bringing heavy snow there. But alas, we will be stuck with some sloppy slush. Clearing is expected behind the storm as high pressure builds back in, with more moderate temperatures with highs in the 40s and lows near 30 leading up to winter break.
Complex Low Pressure System approaches area on Saturday
the system forecast to affect the area on Saturday and saturday night is not expected to be a big snowmaker because the set of perfect atmospheric conditions required for heavy snow here will not be in place for this storm. For heavy snow in the Mid Atlantic, the polar and subtropical jet streams merge, allowing arctic air to spill south. This also concentrates energy southwards, creating a storm along the gulf coast that ultimately strengthens and rides the jet north to produce snow.
Jet Stream configuration for a snowy nor-easter for the Mid Atlantic.
 However, this time, the polar jet will be in the north and a piece of the polar energy will drop down to and travel with the mid level energy to the south ,creating a complex storm over the plains. the storm will be far enough north to drive out cold air in our region and replace it with warm air. The 2 pieces of energy will merge along the atlantic seaboard and depending on where it does, can result in different amounts of snow. Unfortunately, this time, it will merge too far north to give us any decent snow.
Interpreted jet stream positions on water vapor (WV) imagery
ML stands for Mid-level (~500mb)  energy




Thanks for reading, 
-Alex



Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Snowmen :)





12/10/13 Ice Storm Photos

 Freezing rain on Sunday night left everything covered in a quarter inch thick layer of ice



























Outdoor tropicals after the storm

The tropicals that were planted in ground fared well during their first major winter storm.

Snowed in...
2:00PM Sunday
2:00PM Sunday

2:00PM Sunday



6:00 PM Sunday
6:00PM Sunday


Then iced in...

6:00AM Monday
6:00AM Monday

8:00AM Monday
8:00AM Monday


Then snowed in again...

10:00AM Tuesday
12:00PM Tuesday
                             
                                    10:00AM Tuesday

Monday, December 9, 2013

Winter is not done yet... More snow?

UPDATE 10:12 PM 12/9/13
Hi-res NAM radar simulation for 7:00 AM                 Total liquid-equivalent precip                             shows heavy snow

UPDATE 9:05 PM 12/9/13
The NWS has upgraded a narrow band spanning across DC into a Winter Storm Warning for 3-6 inches of snow.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION MAY
  START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE DAWN CHANGING TO ALL
  SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HEAVY
  SNOW. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.




Original Text
Once again, more winter weather is projected to impact the DC metro and once again, there is a lull just before it. Tonight, temps will drop back below freezing so refreezing may occur.  In addition, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 3AM. If you plan to be out and about, use caution.
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY...

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CAUSE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
  VISIBILITY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. BLACK ICE WILL ALSO
  FORM WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING...
  ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

The NWS has a issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire DC area starting 3 AM and lasting till 2PM for a quick hitting 3-5 inches of snow. The snow may start off with some sleet mixed in.


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PRECIPITATION
  MAY START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
  66 IN VIRGINIA AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...NEAR DAWN TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
  INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HEAVY
  SNOW. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


Precip will enter the area in the early morning hours and overspread the area by 6. The storm will be quick moving, but badly timed, with the heaviest snow coming in as students prepare to go to school. Temps will drop as the precip moves in. Bands of heavy snow may develop just in time for rush hour. There is a possibility of preemptive school closures due to the possible heavy snow. Temperatures in the upper levels will be very cold, possibly contributing to higher liquid to snow ratios which means higher accumulations and fluffier and drier snow.





Beyond tomorrow, skies will clear but temps will plummet. Forecast highs will struggle to reach freezing and lows will be in the teens to single digits until Friday. The coldest day will be Wednesday,  with forecast highs in the 20s and  lows on Weds night in the single digits. Bundle up everybody!


How to measure Snow: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PNSSEW&max=61
                                                        Thanks for reading,
                                                                 -Alex