Why was it so warm?

Feburary ended on a warm note. Flowers were blooming and wildlife was out and about. Across the country, spring was a month or more ahead of normal in terms of plant development. Temperatures here actually began around normal after a warm January. However, they steadily climbed higher and higher, eventually ending with a warm wave that set three consecutive record highs at the end of the month.

Temperatures from Jan to Feb 2017

February in detail

These charts are thanks to a website that Professor Degaetano used in EAS 2680 Climate Change. The site was http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/. The next chart shows the number of days in February where temperatures exceeded 60 F. It's a rather arbitrary number but it's to illustrate a point. There were 5 days in February 2017 that matched or exceeded 60 F. The other year that did what was 1940. A long time ago. And there really isn't a trend either. The fact is our temperature record was never intended for studying climate. It was originally just to say oh it's 35 degrees out, time to protect plants from frost.


There are so many inconsistencies. For example, Cornell's weather station used to be placed on the roof of Roberts Hall. As one would expect, the sun beating down on black tar would increase temperatures. After the station was moved out to Game Farm Road, logically, temperatures would cool. Regardless of climate change, simply moving the station induced artificial cooling. This also happened across the country. Warm urban sensors were moved to rural areas to airports resulting in perceived cooling. Then when climate scientists use these datasets, they need to apply complex statistical corrections to them, often adjusting them upwards. This gives plenty of material to climate change deniers to grab onto. And on the surface it seems logical. Scientists are adjusting temperatures upwards-maybe to support their conclusions-but they do not see the real reason they do that.

As you can see the trendline goes down in large part due to the spike in temperatures in the 1920s that is likely due to sensor positioning rather than any climatic causes. But even then the 1930-50s are also warmer than the rest too.

So yes it's warm out and since we cannot do anything about the current warm spell, might as well enjoy it. But this is definitely not an excuse to do nothing. Warm weather has its place and it's not February. That's just going to do more harm than good. Climate change is a serious issue that we are quite clearly feeling the effects of. Now whether these effects will persist is another question. But just because they don't does not mean there is no more problem, because more likely than not, one problem gone probably means many others will show.

Back to our regular scheduled programming... Or is it now?

Well the cold front put a pause on our inevitable march towards spring. Over the course of the day we've gone from record warmth to slightly above normal temperatures. Today's high was in the low 60s and lows will probably dip to the mid 20s. Average high/low temperatures for 2/25 is 36/18 F.

In Ithaca, some days are like this...

Ideal morning walking conditions...

But some days we get this:

Early blooming Ranunculaceae at the Cornell Botanic Gardens...

Though I must say it is a bit early... Winter normally would have a firm grip well into March. Maybe we can score some seasonal weather after the next warm snap next week. Can 't really complain about this weather though...

Robin on the Ag Quad

The end is near!!!! of the warmth...

Another day, another record teetering on the edge. Warm southerly flow ahead of a cold front will push temperatures well into the 60s. The point and click forecast for Cornell from the NWS shows a high temeprature of 63 for today. The record for today was 63 degrees set in 1985. However, raw short term model outputs suggest potential for temperatures to exceed that of forecast, as it has all week. Thus, another temperature record may fall today in this unprecedented warm snap.

12z HRRR temperature forecast.

As with all things, the beautiful weather will end. A cold front will approach this afternoon, binging potentially severe thunderstorms. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph is possible (the threshold for severe is 58mph) and temperatures will plunge into the 40s with the frontal passage. Heavy rain is expected. The front is expected to arrive around 1PM and will take a couple of hours to pass. To complete the day of weather craziness, snow showers will be possible tonight after to frontal passage.

NAM 3K simulated radar showing storms just west of Ithaca.

NAM 3k Simulated Radar for 3PM shows storms rapidly strengthening just east of Ithaca.