More winter slop

High pressure dominates the region, beginning clear and cold days. Temps tonight will be in the low 20s and highs in the 30s tomorrow. As the work week draws to a close, this high will begin to lift out, being replaced a low pressure system forming to the west. This system will be a complex one, with many low centers and phasing events. This system may start off as some snow and sleet on Saturday before quickly transitioning to  into Sunday night . The storm is forecast to bomb out off of the coast of New England, bringing heavy snow there. But alas, we will be stuck with some sloppy slush. Clearing is expected behind the storm as high pressure builds back in, with more moderate temperatures with highs in the 40s and lows near 30 leading up to winter break.

Complex Low Pressure System approaches area on Saturday

the system forecast to affect the area on Saturday and saturday night is not expected to be a big snowmaker because the set of perfect atmospheric conditions required for heavy snow here will not be in place for this storm. For heavy snow in the Mid Atlantic, the polar and subtropical jet streams merge, allowing arctic air to spill south. This also concentrates energy southwards, creating a storm along the gulf coast that ultimately strengthens and rides the jet north to produce snow.

Jet Stream configuration for a snowy nor-easter for the Mid Atlantic.

 However, this time, the polar jet will be in the north and a piece of the polar energy will drop down to and travel with the mid level energy to the south ,creating a complex storm over the plains. the storm will be far enough north to drive out cold air in our region and replace it with warm air. The 2 pieces of energy will merge along the atlantic seaboard and depending on where it does, can result in different amounts of snow. Unfortunately, this time, it will merge too far north to give us any decent snow.

Interpreted jet stream positions on water vapor (WV) imagery
ML stands for Mid-level (~500mb)  energy

Thanks for reading, 

-Alex