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| Current Radar |
Rain is still coming on Friday through early Saturday morning as the storm currently producing winter weather over the central US comes our way with .5 -1 inch of rain possible. Highs will be in the 50s on Friday ,dropping as a cold front pushed through. Saturday will be cloudy in the morning and then clearing, with highs in the low 40s as high pressure builds.
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| Bristol, Oklahoma, which is near Tulsa, on the afternoon of December 5th |
Official NWS forecast
Sunday: Snow likely before 9am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely between 9am and noon, then rain, freezing rain, and sleet after noon. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then rain or freezing rain. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
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A new model, the NAM
Previously, I have been discussing the American GFS (Global Forecast System) model, the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) model, and the Canadian CMC/GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) model. The image below is from the NAM (North American Mesoscale Model), which is a short range, higher resolution model that only forecasts weather over the lower 48. This model's increased resolution allows the rain/snow line to be pinpointed quite more accurately. Its shortfall is that it only forecasts for the US and tends to overestimate precipitation amounts. The NAM forecasts a winter storm from Saturday to Monday with a lot of freezing rain.
Winter storm Xaver impacting Europe
Winter storm Xaver is battering Northern Europe with heavy rain and high winds up to 160 kph (100mph). It has shut down all rail service to Scotland and killed a person in Scotland. In addition, the Glasgow train station was evacuated when debris shattered the glass roof. Fortunately, Xaver brings a potent storm surge to an area that is well protected by levees so flooding danger is not especially high.
Source: http://www.dw.de/powerful-winter-storm-xaver-hits-scotland-germany-braces-for-its-arrival/a-17272948
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Previously, I have been discussing the American GFS (Global Forecast System) model, the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) model, and the Canadian CMC/GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) model. The image below is from the NAM (North American Mesoscale Model), which is a short range, higher resolution model that only forecasts weather over the lower 48. This model's increased resolution allows the rain/snow line to be pinpointed quite more accurately. Its shortfall is that it only forecasts for the US and tends to overestimate precipitation amounts. The NAM forecasts a winter storm from Saturday to Monday with a lot of freezing rain.
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| NAM Precipitation type at 10PM EST (03Z) on Sunday night |
The 18z GFS run went nuts, giving us around a foot of snow. this is very unlikely to happen given the shallowness of the cold air mass and the storm track to the west of us.
Total precipitation (if all was liquid) forecast from the GFS
Winter storm Xaver impacting Europe
Winter storm Xaver is battering Northern Europe with heavy rain and high winds up to 160 kph (100mph). It has shut down all rail service to Scotland and killed a person in Scotland. In addition, the Glasgow train station was evacuated when debris shattered the glass roof. Fortunately, Xaver brings a potent storm surge to an area that is well protected by levees so flooding danger is not especially high.
Source: http://www.dw.de/powerful-winter-storm-xaver-hits-scotland-germany-braces-for-its-arrival/a-17272948
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| Hamburg Fish Market flooded by the storm |
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| Storm warnings for Germany. Pink indicates highest danger and green indicates no danger |
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| Measured wind gusts so far Below is a video of Xaver battering the coast of Germany. |
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