Major Ice Storm to impact South-Central US, Will is come here?

The Forecast:

The rest of the workweek will feature springlike warmth, with temps in the upper 60's on Thursday and near 60 on Friday. Unfortunately, springlike sun is not in the forecast. A storm system currently dropping snow in the central US will bring us rain and drizzle. This will clear out by Saturday, leaving us with cooler temperatures in the low 40s. this will be followed by another storm, which has the potential to bring us a wintery mix transitioning to rain from sunday into the beginning of the next workweek. These storms will bring heavy snow and crippling ice to the south central US. Following it will be near record cold temperatures from an arctic high.

A map of all US weather hazards as of 12/4/2013

Dark Purple stands for Ice storm warning, which means forecasts of over 1/4 inch of freezing rain expected.

Magenta stands for Winter storm warning, which between 4 inches (10 cm) to 7 inches (18 cm) or more of snow or usually 3 inches (7.6 cm) or more of snow with a large accumulation of ice is forecast.

Blue is Winter Storm Watch ,which means that winter storm conditions are possible

Blue-purple stands for Winter Weather Advisory, which means minor impacts from winter weather is expected.

7 Day Forecast Total Snow Accumulation

7 Day Forecast Total Ice (Freezing Rain) Accumulation

Up to a foot of snow is expected and over an inch of ice in some places. An inch of ice will certainly cripple travel and cause major power outages due to tree damage and even just the ice weighing down transmission lines themselves

What the Models say....

Snowfall amounts through Wednesday... Quite a lot of it... Probably not going to verify though.

Snowfall on Monday only. Notice the very tight gradient. DC is right on the rain/snow line. The dark blue line stands for the freezing line. This is the classic example where a few degrees can be the difference between heavy rain and heavy snow. 

GFS forecast precipitation amounts through Monday this is more likely to verify than the snow amounts. What does not fall as winter precipitation will fall as rain.

Forecast Low temperatures from the GFS model for Wednesday at 7AM. This model forecasts temperatures in the teens to low 20s for the area instead of single digits as the ECMWF (European Model) had forecasted yesterday.

GFS model animation

Model forecasts can vary model to model and run to run. wide variations signal a complicated and low-confidence forecast.  For example, the CMC (Canadian Model) shows a weaker and more southerly storm that gives us snow while the GFS Model shows a stronger storm that gives us rain in the same time-frame.

GFS

CMC

So which one is right? most likely neither. As mentioned before, a lot can range in the next few days and more often than not, the actual outcome is a blend of these model solutions.

Elsewhere
A storm system, dubbed Xaver by the Berlin Institute of Meteorology, is forecast to bring high winds and heavy rain to Northern Europe.

Thanks for reading and may the odds for snow be ever in our favor, 

-Alex