This basically shows how complicated forecasting is...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
YOU WOULD THINK THAT AS A POTENTIAL EVENT APPROACHES...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WOULD EVENTUALLY INCREASE. BUT WITH A FICKLE
OVERRUNNING EVENT INTERACTING WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT...IT SEEMS THAT
THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT IS IN FULL FORCE. WE ARE NOW WITHIN 48 HOURS
OF A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM...AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD...TO VIRTUALLY DRY.
THE NAM HAS ESSENTIALLY STUCK TO ITS GUNS IN BEING THE WETTEST
MODEL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ONCE-DRY GFS IS NOW JUST AS WET AS THE
NAM...WHILE THE ONCE-WET CANADIAN IS MORE ON BOARD WITH THE
ALWAYS-DRY EUROPEAN. WOW. THE PATTERN IS SO COLD AND SO DYNAMIC
THAT I THINK NOW IS THE TIME THAT WE ACQUIESCE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTER STORM IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
Anything could change at anytime...
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